@careerisover made an interesting case for why the tablet (read: iPad) is the odd man odd for executive use. In the very short term, I think he is right. However, despite my fear of sounding like a me too fanboy, I wanted to lay out my case for why it is early, but the fight is already over between netbooks, laptops, and tablets (spoiler: tablets win in the end).

First, my credentials/bias. I have been an ultraportable notebook user for years. I travel hundreds of thousands of miles a year. I have run medium sized orgs with 10-30 directs and a few hundred people total. I am a technology executive, so my computing demands are heavy. Lots of data analysis, content creation, presentations, meetings, and collaboration. I bought the iPad on the first day and switched to the 3G model on the first day it was available. I progressed through an evolution of carrying three devices (MacBook Air, iPad, iPhone) to discontinuing traveling with a laptop. I have achieved almost full productivity on the iPad.

The basic netbook-over-tablet premise is that the smart choice is to carry a netbook and a smartphone with the later subsuming all functionality of the tablet. (Implied is the idea that the alternative is that the tablet would be the ONLY device carried.) This would fall short for several reasons. First, the virtual keyboard is too limiting for data manipulation and content creation. Second, voice applications (read: phone calls) are too awkward. Third, as smartphones evolve, they’ll take over any gaps between the net book and phone.

I agree with all the points made, and disagree with the conclusion. Let’s break it down:

It’s a paradigm shift

The android and iOS platforms represent a trend line towards the consumerization of the computer. Their are more fundamental reasons apple dropped the “computer company” from it’s name. The new breed of “mobile” OSes represent an easier to use, more productive, fit to purpose experience than windows, macos, or the attempts at desktop Linux. They are very early and immature, but the trend line is clear. As they mature, they will replace most knowledge workers’ computer use cases. Executives, in particular, will be the among the first to be self sufficient in this new world.

The first generation iPad is barely usable for industrial strength knowledge work, and the android offerings lag behind that. That said, the rate of evolution is extreme. Some rewiring of habits is required, and executives should get in on this early to ensure they ride the productivity wave (and associated competitive advantage) from the beginning.

It’s close enough

If your job is primarily of some combination of email, content consumption, task management and tracking, collaboration, research, or capture, the iPad and tablet are superior to the net book experience. The always on, instant boot, and push notifications change the way you work. It allows for the higher productivity of the larger form factor to take place as easily and in all the same places as the smartphone. This allows the executive to sprinkle in meatier tasks in small amounts of downtime that would otherwise be filled with email only. The tablet has a social context closer to phone or pad of paper than computer. That means it is socially acceptable to take it with you everywhere. A net book is closer to a laptop. Whipping a netbook out in a nice restaurant will draw the same set of uncomfortable stares as if you hauled a 30 inch monitor and an external keyboard in.

For other tasks, like content creation, you can get by. I’ve build graphics and diagram intensive presentations entirely on my iPad. For general purpose word processing documents, it is more than serviceable. It will get better…fast. For some content creation tasks, it will surpass the equivalent desktop experience, which leads us to…

What about that touch interface, anyway?

The touch interface is the next evolution in interaction patterns. It allows for two powerful innovations that will outpace the windows and macos world.

First, for a large class of executive focused content creation tasks, the touch interface dramatically outstrips the mouse equivalent. In particular, tasks that involve manipulating content objects will benefit. The ability to “reach out” and interact with the objects is more natural. It also lowers the bar for many tasks. I can already create diagrams more quickly on my iPad than in visio on my laptop. Anyone wanting to see how is will play out should look at Omnigraffle for the iPad (send me a message if I am missing an app that better exemplifies this).

Second, the virtualization of the keyboard is an inevitability. Once proficiency issues are overcome via a successful approach to feedback loops, this innovation will open up many productivity enhancements with very specialized input metaphors. The querty keyboard, designed to slow input down, will be relegated to long form writing only. While freeform input examples abound, a great specialized keyboard example comes in Apple’s Numbers application for the iPad.

What about voice?

Carry a smartphone.

Don’t like that answer? Buy a Bluetooth headset. The practice of holding the device to your face is dying. Augmented conversation context like Voice + data, chat backchannels, and video is killing that as an option.

Conclusion: The writing is on the wall

The sales of iPads is already foreshadowing the future. Netbook sales are getting pounded by the tablet. Executives are leading the charge. If you are stuck in the net book world for too much longer, maybe your career IS over. :-)